Messi will surpass Ronaldo's total goals! And for Ronaldo to surpass Messi's average goals per game is even more impossible.
It is precisely because of this state of "still playing, still scoring, still chasing" that the comparison between him and Messi has never ended: 961 goals, 1310 games, an average of 0.73 goals per game; Messi's 896 goals, 1137 games, an average of 0.78 goals per game—the numbers are there, and the gap is there. (Data as of February 6, 2026, Beijing time)
Nationality: Portuguese
Club: Riyadh Victory
Total goals: 961
Total number of matches: 1310
Goals per game: 0.73
Age: 41
Debut: 2002
Nationality: Argentina
Club: Inter Miami
Total goals: 896
Total matches: 1137
Goals per game: 0.78
Age: 38
Debut: 2004
According to this comparison, Messi is still 65 goals away from Ronaldo's total goals. The crucial point is that Ronaldo hasn't stopped; he has already played 18 games in the Saudi league this season and scored 17 goals, maintaining a formidable output in the league.
Messi, on the other hand, also had a "consistently high output" in his most recent full season: he scored 29 goals and provided 19 assists in 28 regular season games in 2025, winning the Golden Boot and the regular season MVP level performance.
So the question boils down to two very simple sentences:
First, for Messi to reach 65 goals, it's not just about continuing to be productive, but also about how many more goals Ronaldo can add each year.
Secondly, both players are getting older, and whoever slows down first, whoever takes more breaks, or whoever reduces their number of matches will directly change the slope of this catch-up line.
In this comparison, Messi averages 0.78 per game, while Ronaldo averages 0.73 per game. Don't be fooled by the mere 0.05 difference; after playing thousands of games, it's very difficult to significantly increase these averages, because each additional game only adds a small amount of water to a huge overall pool.
The only realistic path forward is for Ronaldo to maintain a near-one-goal-per-game or even higher efficiency for the foreseeable future, while Messi adopts a more playmaking style of play and his goal-scoring percentage decreases—only when both sides move in the same direction can the gap in average goals per game be gradually narrowed.
However, judging from the "recent status," the difficulty remains considerable:
Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 17 goals in 18 league games this season, which is indeed a high-efficiency run.
Messi scored 29 goals in 28 regular season games in 2025, which is already a higher average, and he also added 19 assists, which shows that he can both finish and drive the attack.
In other words, for Ronaldo to catch up in average goals per game, he not only needs to continue to be "outrageously high" himself, but he also needs to wait for Messi's goal output to slow down significantly; relying solely on one-sided bursts of energy will make it very difficult to catch up.
The total goalscoring line depends more on two things: who plays longer and who can consistently add more goals each year. Cristiano Ronaldo is still at his goal-scoring rhythm in the Saudi league, and official statistics show that he was still active on his birthday, February 5th.
The average goals per game line is more like a contest of "playing style and role": if Messi focuses more on playmaking and key passing, his average goals per game may gradually decrease; if Ronaldo continues to focus on finishing, his average goals per game has room to increase - but to increase it to more than 0.78, it will require a long period of sustained high efficiency.
Source: This article is based on an analytical report originally published by Sohu
